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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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