Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
