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Growing concerns exist regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in last year that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

There have been little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down anew.